![]() The news has been full of photographs of babushkas training with AK-47 rifles (or wooden mockups of same) while the grandmothers are no match for trained Russian conscripts, their determination matters. The Ukrainian population will fight against a Russian invasion force if it has arms and equipment to do so. On all of these fronts, Russia has cause for concern a Ukrainian insurgency could spell doom not just for the Russian occupation of the country but also for Vladimir Putin’s reign of terror. The key elements determining the success of an insurgency are the degree to which the populace supports the invading power, the presence of external sanctuaries and support for the insurgents and terrain providing cover and concealment for the rebel fighters, and the ability of an information operations campaign to influence the occupying power. Kyiv will likely fall within days, if not hours, of a full-on Russian attack, with horrific human suffering among innocent Ukrainian civilians casualties could number in the tens of thousands.īut, as the United States has learned to its dismay over the past 20 years, invading a country and toppling its government are entirely different from digesting it-the dog that catches the car then has to figure out what to do with it. While the Ukrainian army appears, on paper, to have rough parity with the Russian forces surrounding the country and occupying the Crimean Peninsula and the Donbass region in eastern Ukraine, its combat readiness, training, and air force and missile assets cannot compare with those arrayed against it. These actions will raise the costs of an attack on Ukraine but at this point appear unlikely to deter a full-on invasion, likely intended to topple the Ukrainian government and install a puppet regime in Kyiv. NATO has done a commendable job attempting to deter a Russian invasion of Ukraine, with forceful warnings of significant sanctions against the Russian state and its leaders as well as shipments of defensive weapons including anti-tank and air defense missiles.
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